In light of the events at the US Capitol, we wanted to reshare a conversation we had with historian Allan Lichtman in October. Professor Lichtman has taught at American University since 1973; famously, he created the The Keys to the White House model, which he created with a Russian seismologist (really!) in 1981.
Lichtman’s model uses 13 True/False criteria to predict whether the candidate of an incumbent party will win or lose the next election for the U.S. president, and he’s been right in every election since, including Trump’s 2016 win.
We spoke about Lichtman’s predictions for 2020 right before Election Day, as well as how to factor new unexpected variables (say, a pandemic) into your model, and how to get better at forecasting on an ongoing basis.